Decisive is a very practical book written by Chip and Dan Heath that illustrates various techniques we can use to become better decision makers. The core idea of the book is the WRAP principle that helps you form a good process for decision making. Most of us are constantly winging it (letting our system 1 of thinking take control) and so most of our decisions are made on autopilot. This book aims to change that and give us the necessary tools that we can use in different decision making scenarios.
WRAP is simple four part guideline.
- Widen your options.
- Reality test your assumptions.
- Attain some distance.
- Prepare to be wrong.
Decisive starts by listing out the 4 evils of decision making and then offering the WRAP framework to protect against them. I’ll take a look at summarising my lessons from this book below by taking each of the evils one at a time.
Narrow framing – Widen your options
Narrow framing is discussed in detail in the book thinking fast & slow. In a nutshell, narrow framing is looking at your options too narrowly. Whenever you hear ‘whether or not we should do X’ you should realise that you are being presented with a narrow set of options. You need to realise that the options you see aren’t the only ones that exist. This is the dreaded spotlight effect. What you see is not all there is.
Begin by asking yourself what else can you do and is there a better way. This is also linked to exploring the opportunity cost of doing something. An interesting way to counter narrow framing is to vanish an option and then check what else can be done. For example, if you’re considering firing someone from your team, assume now that the choice of firing them has vanished. What else can you do to achieve the desired results with them in the team. You will see more options emerge. This is the thinking equivalent of moving the spotlight. We sometimes find ourselves stuck in a prevention mindset, afraid of trying out new options. We need to recognise this state and explore a promotion mindset where we are optimistic about our chances with new things. A healthy balance of promotion and prevention is what leads to good decisions in the long run.
Multi-tracking is when you explore multiple options at once. In many studies discussed in the book, multi-tracking is said to have provided better options. The idea is simple, instead of exploring one option at a time, explore all of them together. The connections our brain makes and lateral learnings that come with this, generally lead to better decision making.
One final technique is finding people who have solved your problems. Sam Walton joked that he has been in more K-marts than anyone else. He criss crossed the country looking to understand efficient billing counters and adopted many of his learnings to Walmart.
Confirmation bias – Reality test your assumptions
Confirmation bias is one of the most dangerous evils of decision making. We tend to put extra weight on data that confirms our own assumptions and thus validate our original thinking. This is also what makes us feel our case is unique and pushes us to discount what usually happens to others like us in the world.
The simplest way to counter this, is to actively seek disagreements. In a famous story, Alfred Sloan, the chairman of General Motors, in a board meeting asked if everyone agreed with the decision. Everyone said yes. He is then said to have delayed the decision until there were some disagreements. He actively seeked dissenting voices as only after there were some disagreements that he could conclude that they considered everything about the decision.
Zooming out allows you to consider “base rates” and not be swayed away by your own inside view. The course creation story from thinking fast & slow is a classic example. We tend to assume our cases are unique and we discount “what usually happens”. In reality, our own actions have little or no effect on the outside world. While our actions change our paths and success probabilities, they are unable to change the general rate of success for anything outside our direct control. An important skill related to this is being able to ask the right question. Experts are great at understanding base rates but bad at predicting. Instead of asking a lawyer what are my chances of success, gather data by asking them the base rates and other information they have readily available. Things like ‘how long does a case like this typically drag on’, ‘how many people generally end up winning such cases’.
“Ooching” your way in with less expensive experiments and tests. The point that is often made in the book is ‘why guess when you can know’. We should all see if we can run small tests to see if it can reveal the information that can help us make more informed decisions.
Experts are great at understanding base rates but bad at predicting.
Emotions – Attain distance
Getting some distance from the decision is often quite useful in making a decision. Andy Grove’s famous story where he asked Gordon Moore “what would our successors do” helped him put the memory business into perspective. This question allowed Grove to put some distance and sideline the emotions. Another rule that comes in handy is the 10-10-10 rule. This is about thinking how you would feel about the decision 10 minutes, 10 days and 10 years from now. This line of questioning can be effective in risky scenarios when you’re in a prevention mindset.
In a study, college students were asked to pick an option for themselves. When they were asked to pick the same options for a friend, their decisions were starkly different. When we advise others, we look at things differently. A right question to ask yourself in situations is “what would I advise my friend“. This gives us the appropriate distance we need to assess the situation.
Finding our core priorities is also important. The story of Interplast, which is a volunteer organisation of doctors that deal with cleft lips in developing countries highlights the importance of enshrining your priorities. Interplast was debating internally on some questions. Instead of trying to find the answer through just debate, they decided to put their core priorities front and centre and then assessed which answers to those questions upheld their priorities perfectly. This was a great way to keep emotions under check and take decisions that lead to alignment with the core priorities. A quick hack for you to stay true to your mission is to set an hourly timer and gauge if you’re working on the right set of things when it beeps (a good interruption if you will).
Overconfidence – Prepare to be wrong
Overconfidence leads to more poor decisions and actions than we will care to admit. It is a result of our past actions and our inability to stay rational. It is hard to say why feel overconfident about certain things but the following three techniques can help you protect yourself against overconfidence.
Bookending is putting together dire and rosy scenarios to understand the range of options (real world scenarios). In the absence of bookends, we rely too much on exact predictions. A simple thought experiment called “prospective hindsight” requires you to assume something has happened and then seek reasons for that. For instance, instead of asking to predict whether or not an employee will leave in six months, assume the employee left within six months and now come up with reasons that explain their exit. This line of questioning unlocks a different kind of thinking, one that aims to fill in the blanks between the situation today and a possible event in the future.
Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a technique used in the military to assess potential damages and plan for those scenarios. It basically requires listing down all possible failures and then asking yourself two questions. 1.How likely is it, and 2. How severe are the consequences of this. They then give both these two factors, a score out of 10. You can then multiply the two numbers to get a total. The possible failures with the highest scores are the most catastrophic ones should get your most attention.
Tripwires are artificial events you put in to examine your assumptions. Specific dates or measurements are the most common tripwires that help you jolt yourself out of the autopilot driven thinking. Simple things like having a specific date by which you will have saved x$ or a set budget you decide to put in to a new marketing effort, can act as artificial deadlines when you can assess your assumptions. Another way to set up a tripwire is to use artificial barrier or steps. In a famous cookie tasting experiment, two groups of participants were offered free cookies. For one group, the cookies were put in a bowl and given to them. For the other group, the cookies were individually wrapped and then put in a bowl and given to them. On an average, the first group finished their cookies in 6 days while the other group, that had cookies individually wrapped, took 24 days to finish them. Cookie wrappers made it an additional step acting as a tripwire making people think some more about whether or not they wanted another cookie.
With the right tripwire we can ensure we don’t spend good time or money after bad. Alternatively, tripwires allow us to take risks with specific goals, like by having a predefined budget for a new marketing campaign.
I run a startup called Harmonize. We are hiring and if you’re looking for an exciting startup journey, please write to jobs@harmonizehq.com. Apart from this blog, I tweet about startup life and practical wisdom in books.